polls and computers

With the holidays approaching, it means it's time for some final pre-BCS bowl rankings.

I suppose the place to start the discussion is at the top. In my rankings, my number 1 team didn't play. My number two team lost. My number 3 team won. Voila, a straightforward 1 vs 2 matchup for the national championship. Conveniently, the BCS computers agree with me here. Texas and Oklahoma are the two best teams in the country. The BCS system is set up to play the top two teams against each other.

Except, oh wait, we have to make room for the SEC. The Harris and USA Today polls decided Florida has had a better season than Texas. Makes you wonder what criteria they use (other than, an SEC team has to make it). Let's take a gander:

Texas has a win against a top team. Florida has a win against a top team. The team Texas beat is better than the team Florida beat.
Texas' loss was on the road. Florida lost at home. The team Texas lost to is better than the team Florida lost to.
Texas played four games against teams that won at least nine games. Florida played two.
Texas won its bowl game last season. Florida lost.

This is the problem with not having criteria for how to determine success in college football. The answer doesn't have to be a playoff; a playoff is merely one option in the larger approach of having predictable and clearly defined criteria. But I'm not going to spend too much time on this, because unlike last year, when things were debatable, this year, the Big 12 is clearly superior to the SEC. The FL/AL matchup in the SEC championship was notable largely because the teams didn't play each other in the regular season. In fact, Texas played more 10 win teams than Alabama and Florida combined. For that matter, USC, Penn State, and Texas Tech also played more 10 win teams during the regular season, but of course none of them received any serious discussion about displacing Florida.

Farther down, I run into the problem of what to do with the teams that finished 12-0. I'm putting them between the one loss and two loss teams. The problem is they're really not top teams; neither of them played anything approaching a challenging schedule. There are lots of teams from the major conferences that could have gone undefeated with the schedules of Utah and Boise State. But at the same time, they did win all their games. It's also worth noting that there were four 12-0 teams before conference championships. Both teams that played a 13th game lost (Alabama and Ball State). Makes you wonder what Utah and Boise State will do in their 13th game.

So here's how I'd match up the BCS if it were up to me.

Oklahoma/Texas - national championship
Virginia Tech/Florida
USC/Penn State
Alabama/Cincinnati
Utah/Boise State (or Texas Tech, if three Big 12 teams were allowed)

However, if OU/FL is going to be the title, it would be nice for TX and AL to play each other, and it would be good to give the two undefeated teams a chance to play each other. Instead, TX and AL are faced with games they're expected to win, only making news if they lose. Really, if Alabama beats Utah, what does that signify? And if Ohio State gets in as a second Big Ten team over an undefeated team, why not a second ACC team like Georgia Tech or Boston College instead of Utah? Texas, after all, beat several Big 12 teams that themselves beat a Mountain West opponent, yet that's not quality enough to get Texas into the title game.

1 B-12 Texas 11 - 1
2 B-12 Oklahoma 12 - 1
3 SEC Florida 12 - 1
4 B-12 Texas Tech 11 - 1
5 B-Ten Penn State 11 - 1
6 P-10 USC 11 - 1
7 SEC Alabama 12 - 1
8 MW Utah 12 - 0
9 WAC Boise State 12 - 0
10 B-Ten Ohio State 10 - 2
11 B-E Cincinnati 10 - 2
12 B-12 Oklahoma State 9 - 3
13 B-12 Missouri 9 - 4
14 SEC Georgia 9 - 3
15 B-Ten Michigan State 9 - 3
16 B-E Pittsburgh 9 - 3
17 B-Ten Northwestern 9 - 3
18 ACC Virginia Tech 9 - 4
19 ACC Boston College 9 - 4
20 ACC Georgia Tech 9 - 3
21 P-10 Oregon 9 - 3
22 ACC Florida State 8 - 4
23 B-Ten Iowa 8 - 4
24 MW TCU 10 - 2
25 MAC Ball State 12 - 1

As for bowl predictions, here's what I think.

Big 12: 5-2
Big East: 4-2
SEC: 5-3
MWC: 3-1
Pac 10: 3-2
ACC: 5-5
Big Ten: 3-4

first snow of 2008

We didn't exactly get a whole lot of snow this week. But we did get enough to be annoying.

And with I-64 closed now in our neck of the woods, it makes for some great pictures!

getting close

mmm, Happy post Turkey day.

Seeing as how it's almost Saturday again, I better get these posted quick.

The trouble I'm having at the top is the Boise State, Utah, Ball State conundrum. Either they should be ranked 2, 3 and 4, or I really don't think they deserve to be in the top ten at all.

What I just can't bring myself to do is put them in between, what I think is really a cop out by a lot of voters. If the 1-loss teams are having a better season than the undefeated mid-majors, then the two-loss teams are, also. Note that several of these teams can still lose, with the potential to elevate the undefeateds. For my rankings, that third loss is the only way they're moving down.

At the other end, there's a logjam as the ACC and Pac-10 figures out who are its top teams, so as that gets sorted out, I've got Mississippi, TCU, BYU, South Carolina, Nebraska, and a few others waiting to replace the losers. And note my satisfaction that long-since dropped teams from my listing are finally getting nationally dropped, like LSU and Auburn. I think Iowa is most deservedly moving into my rankings, the least-discussed 8 win team in the land.

1 B-12 Texas 10 - 1
2 SEC Alabama 11 - 0
3 B-12 Oklahoma 10 - 1
4 SEC Florida 10 - 1
5 B-12 Texas Tech 10 - 1
6 B-Ten Penn State 11 - 1
7 P-10 USC 9 - 1
8 B-12 Oklahoma State 9 - 2
9 B-12 Missouri 9 - 2
10 SEC Georgia 9 - 2
11 B-Ten Ohio State 10 - 2
12 B-E Cincinnati 9 - 2
13 WAC Boise State 11 - 0
14 MW Utah 12 - 0
15 MAC Ball State 12 - 0
16 B-Ten Michigan State 9 - 3
17 B-E Pittsburgh 7 - 3
18 B-Ten Northwestern 9 - 3
19 ACC Boston College 8 - 3
20 ACC Florida State 8 - 3
21 ACC Georgia Tech 8 - 3
22 ACC Virginia Tech 7 - 4
23 P-10 Oregon State 8 - 3
24 P-10 Oregon 8 - 3
25 B-Ten Iowa 8 - 4

week 11 rankings

We are nearing the end of the 2008 season. All in all, the last couple weeks have shaped up nicely. As I said after the first part of the season, the Big East was underrated and the SEC overrated. The Big East now has five bowl eligible teams, as many as the ten team Pac-10, and with a sixth team with a winning record, actually has more teams with a winning record at the moment. The SEC, meanwhile, is already settled. That's right. With two more weeks of football, we already know Alabama and Florida will meet in the SEC championship. While I'd still rank the SEC #2 overall, the race for a champion is becoming downright boring. The ACC and Big Ten have much more exciting things going on these last two weeks.

And of course, the freak that is the Big 12 this year has five teams with legitimate shots at winning 11+ games and becoming the conference champ. Last year, the Big 12 had three 11+ win teams (more than the SEC and Big Ten combined!), and none of them were sent to the national championship game, not even the #1 ranked team in the BCS, Missouri. Is it possible the Big 12 could have four 11+ win teams this year, and none of them will be sent to the national championship?

This week I've decided to start including Boise State and Ball State. Neither have even played a ranked team, but since the Big 12 can't fill four at large spots, somebody has to get into the BCS. While I think teams like Michigan State, Ohio State, Georgia, and Florida State/Virginia Tech are better than them, I'm willing to go along if the B-States go undefeated.

1 B-12 Texas Tech 10 - 0
2 SEC Alabama 10 - 0
3 B-12 Texas 9 - 1
4 B-12 Oklahoma 9 - 1
5 SEC Florida 8 - 1
6 P-10 USC 8 - 1
7 B-Ten Penn State 9 - 1
8 B-12 Oklahoma State 8 - 2
9 B-12 Missouri 8 - 2
10 B-Ten Ohio State 8 - 2
11 SEC Georgia 8 - 2
12 B-Ten Michigan State 9 - 2
13 MW Utah 10 - 0
14 ACC Florida State 7 - 2
15 ACC North Carolina 7 - 2
16 B-E Cincinnati 7 - 2
17 MAC Ball State 9 - 0
18 WAC Boise State 9 - 0
19 B-E Pittsburgh 7 - 2
20 ACC Georgia Tech 7 - 3
21 B-Ten Northwestern 7 - 3
22 B-Ten Minnesota 7 - 3
23 MW TCU 9 - 2
24 MW BYU 9 - 1
25 ACC Virginia Tech 6 - 3

week 10 rankings

1 B-12 Texas Tech
2 SEC Alabama
3 B-12 Texas
4 B-Ten Penn State
5 B-12 Oklahoma
6 B-12 Oklahoma State
7 SEC Florida
8 P-10 USC
9 B-12 Missouri
10 B-Ten Ohio State
11 SEC Georgia
12 ACC Georgia Tech
13 MW Utah
14 B-Ten Michigan State
15 ACC Florida State
16 B-Ten Northwestern
17 SEC LSU
18 ACC North Carolina
19 ACC Maryland
20 P-10 California
21 B-E Cincinnati
22 B-E West Virginia
23 B-E South Florida
24 B-Ten Minnesota
25 B-12 Kansas

one more day

That's all I'm going to say. After like two years of this, tomorrow is it.

One more day!

about time

I would highly encourage reading of the letter the Obama campaign sent to Attorney General Mukasey regarding the Republicans' fussing about 'voter fraud', as if the Democrats are the ones trying to disenfranchise people.

It's pretty fundamental stuff. If people are kept from voting, and if the legal system is politicized, then we lose confidence in the outcome of elections, destroying the very democracy that supposedly governs our society.

It's very exciting to see Obama wading into the discussion.

week 7 rankings

Well, Missouri won't have a perfect season.

Of course, the good news is that's apparent after game 6 instead of game 1. They had a game to lose; it just would have been wiser to save that for Texas next week. The real irony is that by losing, Missouri actually makes the Big 12 conference by far the best conference in the country. In essence, the Tigers created another top team. It's just unfortunate that MU had to lose in order for Oklahoma State to get some recognition.

I've got some teams this week that are kind of just waiting for them to play each other. I think Oklahoma and USC, for example, are better than Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. But I'm not ranking them higher until Oklahoma State and Texas Tech actually lose a game (which I think will happen in two weeks for both of them). I think Georgia is notably better than Vanderbilt, but they both come in 5-1. If Georgia wins, I'll move them up a fair amount. But I think for a week at least, they don't belong in the top ten. Kansas and Vanderbilt are probably more wishful thinking than great teams, and will likely each pick up their second losses next week. But it's not next week yet. Another place where I seem to differ from the national pundits is with the Big East. It's not great this year, but there are four one-loss teams, and West Virginia's got to be one of the best two loss teams out there. That Auburn-West Virginia game should be pretty interesting.

I continue to think BYU and Utah are overrated. They'd be .500 ball clubs in the Big 12, SEC, ACC, or Big Ten, and more empirically, they just don't have any quality wins. Michigan and UCLA are both losing programs. But the schedules are better than Ball State, so I'm willing to keep ranking them as long as they stay undefeated. In a sense, I look at LSU the same way; without a strong schedule so far, getting that first loss drops them significantly in my book.

1 B-12 Texas
2 B-Ten Penn State
3 SEC Alabama
4 B-12 Oklahoma State
5 B-12 Texas Tech
6 B-12 Oklahoma
7 B-12 Missouri
8 ACC Virginia Tech
9 SEC Florida
10 P-10 USC
11 B-Ten Ohio State
12 B-E South Florida
13 B-12 Kansas
14 ACC Wake Forest
15 SEC Vanderbilt
16 SEC Georgia
17 ACC Florida State
18 MW Utah
19 MW BYU
20 SEC LSU
21 ACC North Carolina
22 P-10 California
23 B-Ten Michigan State
24 B-E Connecticut
25 B-E Pittsburgh

neighborhood party

So my neighborhood threw a little party on Saturday to celebrate our centennial. Jodi took some pictures of the firetrucks, and there were political folks all about.

It was really interesting, I've only seen politicians in rather formal events. This was remarkably casual. Mayor Slay just pulls up, gets out of the car, and I say hi. Representative Clay wanders by a couple minutes later. There's no security, no lines, no particular program; they're just there.

It was a fun little surprise.

week 6 rankings

In my mind, this was a much more stable week. The biggest problem I'm having is with the Big East. USF lost to Pitt, but I'm not ready to rank Pitt yet after that first game loss. The biggest risk I'm taking is probably putting Virginia Tech back in the top ten.

Just like I had Alabama ranked higher than some others earlier on, I'm now apparently on the low end. I don't think you can jump LSU and Missouri until they lose. I also bumped BYU and Utah farther down the list after a more careful scrutiny of the Mountain West. It just looks to me like middle of the pack teams from the other conferences would run through the MWC pretty easily, too.

So I've got my 7 undefeated teams that I think are among the best in the country and the 7 one-loss teams among the best. Then I've got 5 more undefeated teams which I think will lose soon or who have pretty weak schedules. Then I've got 6 one-loss teams that are about equally likely to move up or drop out.

1 B-12 Oklahoma
2 SEC LSU
3 B-12 Missouri
4 SEC Alabama
5 B-12 Texas
6 B-Ten Penn State
7 B-12 Texas Tech
8 ACC Virginia Tech
9 P-10 USC
10 SEC Florida
11 SEC Georgia
12 B-Ten Ohio State
13 B-E South Florida
14 B-12 Kansas
15 SEC Vanderbilt
16 B-12 Oklahoma State
17 B-Ten Northwestern
18 MW Utah
19 MW BYU
20 ACC Wake Forest
21 ACC Florida State
22 ACC North Carolina
23 B-E Connecticut
24 P-10 California
25 B-Ten Michigan State